Tools

Electoral statistics methods

No method is a verdict on its own: each highlights a different kind of distortion. Matching signatures on the same precincts are a strong argument.

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By station order

Stations are lined up in official order — by region and TEC. Horizontal shelves of dozens of identical percentages pin drawn results to a specific territorial commission.

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Scatter

Each point is one polling station: turnout on the x-axis, result on the y-axis. Honest regions make a compact cloud; a comet tail toward 100/100 is the classic signature of stuffed ballots and rewritten protocols.

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Shpilkin method

Two panels: votes for each ballot line by turnout interval, and a station scatter (turnout × leader result). Honest voting makes one bell; a tail toward 100/100 is the classic stuffing signature.

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Hourly turnout

Cumulative turnout at each reported hour, or final turnout and the share of early ballots from the protocol. Hours come from the data, with no preset schedule.

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Sankey diagram

Ribbon width is the ballot count. Registered voters split into those who did not vote and those who did, then into early voters and those who voted on election day at the station, at home or remotely. An unusually thick off-station branch is the least observed ballots and a marker of possible irregularities.

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